Predictive modeling consists of a collection of statistical techniques with the goal of finding a relationship between a target or response and several predictors or drivers. It is not uncommon to find business corporations trending towards utilizing data analytics in an effort to predict their outcomes. Predictive modeling is an important tool in the emerging field of sports analytics. Keywords: Analytics, Random effects, correlated data, logistic regression, hierarchical level data, decision-making This can also be used in the recruiting of players. Teams can use the model to facilitate similar decisions in other parts of the game. It increases the precision in decision making by 36% in these data. The paper demonstrates the use of analytics to increase the decision-making in football. The adequacy of the model is estimated through calibration, discrimination, and bootstrap samples.ĭistance-to-go, pass or run, line of scrimmage, and the week of season are significant factors in predicting a successful 4 th down with team as a random effect. In particular, a model based on a logistic regression model with random effects, capable of predicting the likelihood of converting on 4 th down decision is presented. This paper uses data (2015-18) from the games played between the 65 teams in Division I in the Power 5 conferences of the NCAA, to present a prediction model useful for 4 th down determinations.Ī predictive logistic regression model is used in the determination of 4 th down options. However, if each decision can be supplemented with data, it is possible to increase the chances of success. Often the coach makes the decision based on a gut feeling or the advice of an assistant. In the sport of football, coaches are faced with critical decisions at different times in the game.
Predictive Modeling of 4 th Down Conversion in Power 5 Conferences: Football Data Analytics His research includes binary logistic regression models and hierarchical data with random effects. Authors: Joshua Blinkoff 1, Michael Voeller 1, Scottie Graham 2 and Jeffrey Wilson 3ġBarrett Honors College, Arizona State University Tempe, AZĢArizona State University, Sun Devils Athletics, Tempe, AZģDepartment of Economics, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZĪrizona State University/Tempe AZ Jeffrey Wilson is a Professor of Statistics and the Faculty Athletics Representative to the PAC-12 and NCAA.
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